August 28, 2018
By Mark Blanton
In arguably the biggest game of Week 1, Michigan travels to South Bend to play the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a top 15 matchup. In order to examine how the Wolverines might fare against the Golden Domers, it might be helpful to look at Notre Dame’s stats and recruiting classes.
2017 Notre Dame Fighting Irish:
Points scored per game: 34 (top quarter of FBS)
Points per game: 21 (also top quarter)
Yards per game: 448 (top quarter)
Yards allowed per game: 369 (closer to mid table at 46th)
Record: 10-3
Wins against top 25: 4
Spread for Week 1: Michigan -2
Notre Dame poses interesting questions for the Wolverines going into Week 1 after a season with more ups than downs. The wins against Southern California, LSU, NC State and Michigan State certainly were great accomplishments for a team that wasn’t even bowl eligible the year before. However, the Irish has some gut punches as well, namely the 1 point loss to SEC champion Georgia, the disaster in South Florida against the Hurricanes, and the self-destruction against Stanford. The main theme in their big wins and bad losses was turnovers; the Irish were plus several against Michigan State and USC and either even or in the red against UGA, Miami and Stanford.
Offensively, Notre Dame was heavily reliant on the running game guided by quarterback Brandon Wimbush, and I expect that to continue this year. Of the Irish’s 448 yards per game, about 270 of those were gained on the ground by either Wimbush or Josh Adams. With Adams going to the defending Super Bowl champs, it remains to be seen whether the Irish will be able to replicate or better that backfield’s production. Being one-dimensional is not the best of realities when going against a Don Brown defense, so I expect the Irish to struggle to move the ball during this game.
The real strength of this Irish team was in the offensive line. Quenton Nelson looks to be a potential star for the Colts, and the returning players look to be a solid unit for the Irish this year. I think the key matchup in this game will be the Irish offensive line vs the Wolverines front 7; both units have NFL Draft prospects and will be key to each team’s chances to win the game.
The defense, like the offense, is above average for the Power 5. There are certainly NFL prospects on this team in linebacker Te’Von Coney, defensive back Julian Love, and defensive tackle Jerry Tillery. However, this unit gave up a lot of yards for a CFP title contender last season, albeit against a difficult schedule. If Michigan can move the ball and sustain drives against the Irish, then I believe that they will win rather easily.
Recruiting Class
The Irish had a top 10 recruiting class this year, highlighted by players such as defensive back Houston Griffith and wide receiver Kevin Austin. Although there were no five star players in Notre Dame’s most recent class, the Irish make up for it with a lot of four-star and several three-star players arriving in Northern Indiana.
Overall Impressions
I think this is a very winnable game for the Wolverines. The offensive line for the Irish will still be exceptional, but losing Quenton Nelson will be a big blow. Winovich, Bush and company should be able to stop the Irish run game, forcing Brandon Wimbush into a mistake or two through the air. Shea Patterson and the new-look Michigan offense won’t look perfect, but they will be able to move the ball enough to score points if they avoid the turnover bug. It will be relatively close, but Michigan should be able to leave South Bend with a much-needed top 15 win in the bag.
Prediction: Michigan 27, Notre Dame 21
Total Football 