Editor’s Note: I’ll be doing opponent previews every week prior to Michigan/Alabama playing a Power 5 opponent. Video wise, I’ll do my normal preview/recap videos every week for the week’s big games (including Michigan/ND).
August 27, 2018
By Mark Blanton
Alabama is playing Louisville to open its season Saturday in Orlando. To really get a feel of how the Tide matches up against the Cardinals, I’m going to look at Louisville’s stats from last season, its incoming recruiting class, and other factors I think are relevant in determining how the Tide will look and play against its ACC opponent.
By the Numbers: 2017 Louisville Cardinals
Points per Game: 38 (near the top of college football)
Points Allowed per Game: 27 (near the middle of the FBS)
Yards Per Game: 544 (top 3 in the Power 5)
Yards Allowed Per Game: 388 (not even in the top 50 of FBS)
Record: 8-5
Wins against top 25: 0
Spread for Week 1: Alabama -24.5
It seemed to be either massive feast or relative famine for the Cardinals in 2017. Louisville scored points in every game it played except against Clemson, where they were held to a measly 7. Even with a bad showing or two, this offense was among the best in the junior circuit and moved the ball with ease against much of its Power 5 opposition.
However, the same could not be said against the ranked teams that it played. Louisville lost to ranked NC State, Clemson, and Mississippi State and unranked Boston College and Wake Forest. All of this amounted to a team that was roughly mid-table in every respect in college football overall.
I expect the offense to take a step back this year, but not as large of one as some may expect. The Cardinals offense ran around Lamar Jackson in 2017; he had 18 rushing touchdowns and a plethora of passing yards and scores. Losing him will be a major blow to this team; one cannot simply replace that level of production overnight. However, Petrino teams have always scored points and created issues for their opponents. When he has the right personnel, Petrino can get a program to punch above its weight; Arkansas enjoyed a couple of 10-win plus seasons prior to dismissal at Arkansas after being fired for cause.
However, that defense was downright atrocious. The points allowed per game wasn’t bad, but the yardage allowed by the Cardinals was. Admittedly, when one plays as fast tempo as the Cardinals do, you’re going to have more possessions, more yards, and more points scored against you. But the relative ease with which middling teams cut through them causes questions to be asked about how this team will fare with lesser offensive capacity against the defending national champs.
Recruiting Class
Louisville seems to have a good, but not amazing class of freshmen this year from. The Cardinals attracted a mix of 4 and 3-star talent, which is about what I would expect from a mid-table Power 5 team. Their recruiting class finished 32ndish in many class rankings, which is about in the middle of the Power 5 and the ACC. Inside linebacker Robert Hicks seems to be the most hyped player of the Cardinals’ entering class coming out of the Miami-Dade area; ESPN had him at 4 stars and 24/7 seems to agree. Overall, this is Petrino’s best ever class coming to the Commonwealth, matching Charlie Strong’s best class that contained future college star and NFL QB Teddy Bridgewater.
Overall Impressions
I expect Louisville to come out with guns blazing on offense to try to take advantage of a young Alabama secondary. It remains to be seen if Tua or Jalen will start, but I expect Tua to start for the Crimson Tide on Saturday. Defensively, I just don’t think Louisville has the talent to stop a physical team like Alabama over the course of 4 quarters. The Cardinals will score some points and beat the Vegas spread, but the Crimson Tide shouldn’t struggle in this one.
Final Prediction: Alabama 45, Louisville 24
Total Football 