Editor’s note: Under “Recommended Viewing,” I’ve suggested game tape you can watch to demonstrate what I’m talking about conceptually in the article. It should be easy enough to find on YouTube, but I won’t link to it here to avoid potential copyright issues.
July 6, 2018
By Mark Blanton
Football is almost upon us! With less than a month to go before the games commence, it’s a good time to take a look at the defending national champions and how they might fare coming into the new season.
Schedule:
Alabama vs. Louisville (Orlando, FL)
Alabama vs. Arkansas State
Alabama @ Ole Miss
Alabama vs. Texas A&M
Alabama vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Alabama @ Arkansas
Alabama vs. Missouri
Alabama @ Tennessee
Alabama @ LSU
Alabama vs. Mississippi State
Alabama vs. The Citadel
Alabama vs. Auburn
As schedules go, this is a very light one compared to what Alabama has faced in previous years. Louisville has just lost Lamar Jackson to the NFL; it is hard to imagine that the Cardinals will be able to match Jackson’s dynamism (but I’ll have more to say about this later). Arkansas State, Louisiana Lafayette and the Citadel should all be easy wins for the Tide. Ole Miss has a hard road of sanctions ahead of it with Rebel alumnus Matt Luke at the helm; they look to be a .500 team and no match for the Tide. This is Jimbo Fisher’s inaugural season with the Aggies; this game could be tricky for Alabama but I doubt that the Aggies could give Bama a hard time. Arkansas is coming off of a horrible season and might very well finish last in the West this season. Mizzou has NFL quarterback prospect Drew Lock but not much else to speak of; I’d put them in the same category as Texas A&M. Jeremy Pruitt has a multi-year project ahead of him in Knoxville; this isn’t the year that the Vols will challenge the Tide. Ed Orgeron looks to be on the hot seat at LSU with a declining offense and extremely difficult schedule. There’s always the possibility for an upset, but I firmly expect Alabama to be at 9-0 after the LSU game.
However, the schedule becomes far harder from then on out. Mississippi State returns dual-threat quarterback Nick Fitzgerald and many starters on both offense and defense. Its new head coach, Joe Moorhead, is an offensive wizard; his work with Saquon Barkley and Trace McSorley lead Penn State to a New Year Six Bowl win over the Washington Huskies. Although the game is in Tuscaloosa, Mississippi State will be a very tough out and could potentially be more than the Crimson Tide can chew. This game may very well have College Football Playoff repercussions.
Recommended Viewing: Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines in 2017 or just Penn State tape generally from that year.
After the playing bye week of the Citadel game, Auburn comes into Tuscaloosa to close out the season. Auburn loses a lot of its offensive line and running game, but returns Jarrett Stidham and an overall solid roster. Auburn’s schedule is very difficult; it faces Pac-12 favorite Washington in the season opener and has to travel to Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi State. Nevertheless, the Tigers will be a tough out for Alabama and potentially a must win game for Alabama to advance to the College Football Playoff.
Recommended Viewing: Auburn vs. Alabama & Georgia @ Jordan-Hare in 2017; see also Auburn @ Clemson in 2017 for a good defensive performance against such a system.
After the regular season finishes, I would expect to see Georgia or potentially South Carolina emerge from the East. Georgia would be the tougher game, but South Carolina has Jake Bentley and a steadily improving roster that could throw the Bulldogs off of their perch.
Overall, Alabama has as good of a shot as ever to make the College Football Playoff for the fifth consecutive time and potentially be the one seed in that tournament. However, it is unclear what form the team will take to get to that point.
Storylines
What form will the team take on defense?
This question is heavily intertwined with the quarterback battle. Alabama has lost a lot of starters on defense. DaRon Payne, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Anthony Averett, Rashaan Evans, Shaun Dion Hamilton and Ronnie Harrison have all left for the NFL. The incoming recruiting class brings in several defensive backs to replace the multiple departures; it remains to be seen if those players can fit in and excel immediately. Eyabi Anoma, Jaylen Waddle and Patrick Surtain Jr. all look to be future stars for the Tide; former LSU Tiger Saivion Smith has signed as a junior college transfer.
Raekwon Davis, Anfernee Jennings and several other players are coming back for the Tide, but the team has lost Terrell Lewis to season-ending injury and Jeremy Pruitt to become the head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers. Although the quarterback debate is sucking a lot of the oxygen out of the Crimson Tide atmosphere, the strength and quality of its trademark defense could pose a larger issue for the Tide going forward.
Recommended Viewing: Compare Alabama vs. Clemson, 2017 CFP Semifinal (starters present) with Alabama vs. Mississippi State & Auburn in 2017 (starters absent against good teams) to illustrate potential shortcomings of the 2018 team.
Jalen vs. Tua: This story doesn’t look like it will settle down anytime soon. The fundamental question that Nick Saban and Mike Locksley must face is what kind of football team they want Alabama to be; both potential quarterbacks offer a proven way forward but have varying degrees of risk and upside.
The case for Jalen: Jalen Hurts has been a perennial winner ever since he set foot in Tuscaloosa; amassing a 26-2 record prior to the national championship game. Hurts does not make many mistakes; he is a very strong runner and sneakily fast and elusive when you watch him live. If Alabama goes with Jalen as the starting quarterback, we have a pretty good idea what that would look like, considering the two years of film on the subject. Alabama would utilize a lot of read options, run-pass options (RPOs), bootlegs, draws, etc. The idea would be to control the pace of the game by running the ball, scoring some points, and letting the defense do the rest. This formula was what propelled Alabama to 3 titles in 4 years from 2009-2012; Saban acknowledged in 2014 that “we had a really good team to run the ball” and “it was smart to play the way that we did.”
Recommended Viewing: Alabama-Tennessee at Neyland Stadium in 2016. I consider this to be one of the best showings of what a Jalen-led offense can do. Jalen mixes in just enough throwing to be dangerous but really excels in the read option, quarterback run and other facets of the offense.
The case against Jalen: Jalen’s major weakness is that he cannot reliably complete wide open deep or intermediate throws; a defense playing Alabama can take advantage of this by stuffing the run box and making life hard on the Alabama offense. This limits Alabama’s upside against opponents that can routinely move the rock on the Bama D; Auburn, Mississippi State and Georgia all had success during the latter half of the season. Although Alabama won two of those three games, its defense had to make plays at several junctures to keep them in the game. The defense may not be as strong this year as it was last year. Hence, Alabama may need more upside than Jalen can provide, particularly as the calendar turns to November.
Recommended Viewing: 2016 Alabama vs. LSU, 2017 Alabama @ Auburn, Alabama vs. Clemson & Alabama vs. Georgia.
The case for Tua: Tua Tagovailoa simply adds a whole other element to the Alabama offense that it has never truly had under Saban: a laser show passing game. Alabama was always known as the team that won with a “game manager” quarterback or despite its quarterback; Tua can change that dynamic overnight. Under the circumstances, Tagovailoa was magnificient in the Georgia game; he came in at halftime trailing by 2 scores in the national title game and brought home the trophy to Tuscaloosa. Did I mention that he was a true freshman who was playing high school football the year before? Trent Dilfer raved about Tua at the Elite 11; he looks to have all of the upside of a future NFL first-round draft pick. Under Tua, Alabama’s defense would not need to perform as well as it would need to under Jalen; the offense would score more points more quickly than in the past. The players at the skills positions are very young but talented and Tua would have veteran halfback Damien Harris and young gun Najee Harris to hand the ball off to get a couple of much needed yards.
The case against Tua: Tua’s strength can also be his weakness. His ability to rocket the ball into tight spaces can also lead him into trouble against veteran secondaries and defenses. Tua threw a couple of interceptions last year and threw balls that should have been intercepted but were dropped. Tagovailoa sometimes makes erratic decisions that cost Alabama; the pick six against Tennessee and the horrible sack in overtime against Georgia come to mind immediately. This could give the defense headaches if it has to keep cleaning up Tagovailoa’s mess game after game for the Crimson Tide to win.
Recommended Viewing: Tagovailoa’s playing stints during the Vanderbilt, Tennessee and Georgia games.
Verdict: Overall, Alabama should choose Tua Tagovailoa as its starter going into this next season. Tagovailoa’s upside is higher than Hurts’s and the mistakes can be limited by proper gameplanning and coaching for the Hawaiian signal-caller. However, there is also a case to be made for the tried and true SEC veteran in Jalen Hurts. The Texan doesn’t make many mistakes and keeps a hold of and control of the ball in a way that favors Alabama. However, the offense has been stymied far too may times in Hurts’s tenure; Alabama has been lucky to escape some games with wins. In order to defend the national title this season, Nick Saban should turn to Tagovailoa at quarterback.
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